Challenge: build me a mirror Cold War scenario

[Somes J]

Inspired by thinking back to a thread I made on SB.com a while back, and reading a timeline on AH.com a few days ago. The thread was about me wondering about how much the failure of Communism was due to its inherent nature vs. external conditions, and in the OP I indulged a little counterfactual:

Imagine if the situation were reversed, say the first country communism took over was America. In this timeline world communism would have started out with a large, populous, industrialized country with a favorable climate and rich natural resources and a good defensive position behind two oceans. During WWII it would have gotten to play factory to the Allies, remaining itself untouched. The Cold War might have been between said Commie-USA (call it the USSA) and, oh, maybe the British Empire, only in this timeline somehow the Nazis actually pulled off the unmentionable sea mammal operation and were rampaging around mainland Britain for years wrecking shit. Let's give Britain a couple of allies in Western Europe and let them keep their African territories and India postwar, while the USSA and its allies or neutrals take the rest. Now I'd say we have a reversed mirror of the situation in our world ... I could then see the USSA leveraging its greater resources into bankrupting the British with huge military spending, after which this is taken as a sign of the inherent self-destructiveness and inferiority of capitalism as a social system.

I've thought on occassion that this might make an interesting "mirror universe", but alternate history isn't really my thing ... anybody care to take up the challenge of fleshing this scenario out?

The concept behind this mirror universe would be that it would be a version of the Cold War where the power dynamics between the capitalist and communist worlds were reversed; the communists would get the same "unfair" advantages the capitalists got in our world, and the capitalists would get the same "unfair" disadvantages the communists got in our world. Let's also indulge the "determinist" conceit that things would end up much like they did OTL - in the sense that the side with more resources wins.

In keeping with the ironic "mirror universe" theme there should be, if possible, a rough parallelism between the mirror universe and ours, but with the roles reversed. For instance, maybe in the modern world Western Europe would be "post-capitalist" communist states analagous to modern Russia and Eastern Europe, the largest and most successful remaining capitalist country would be India (seems the obvious China analog in this scenario - maybe the Indian independence movement in this timeline is vaguely analagous to the OTL Sino-Soviet split), and one of the last hold-out capitalist countries would be Canada, which would be this world's rough analog of Cuba.

On the other hand, let's also not make this just a straightforward opposites day, as I find that idea both a bit too contrived-seeming and not very interesting; part of what makes AH fun is seeing how things would be different. For instance, I could see there being an American-Russian communist split in this world - I don't think that really has an analog OTL, but it seems both fairly plausible and something that might be interesting.

Obviously, maximum plausibility is not the goal here, and I'm fine with the scenario not being terribly plausible, but ideally outright Alien Space Bat level impossibilities should be kept to a minimum.

I'll post the vague ideas I have for the timeline so far and see if anyone has any ideas to add.

- 1930s: Great Depression is worse than OTL, leading to communists coming to power in the United States (seems like the obvious opportunity to get a communist takeover the of the US, this might be the initial point of divergence from OTL).

- 1940s: WWII. War in western Europe is bloodier and more destructive than OTL and Nazis are more successful. Britain may be subject to, if an invasion is just too impossible, at least a much more generally destructive bombing campaign. The idea here is that Western Europe (i.e. the capitalist world post-war) gets fucked up the way the USSR got fucked up OTL (which was, IIRC, pretty badly).

- 1945ish: End of WWII. Europe partitioned between Russian-communist sphere of influence in the east and British/French-capitalist sphere of influence in the west. Cold War begins.

- Cold War partitioning of the world: will favor the communists heavily compared to OTL. Communists start out with OTL USSR + satellite states and USSA, USSA extends sphere of influence to former Japanese Empire territories so Japan, Korea etc. are all communist in this TL, China goes communist as in OTL but probably more heavily with USSA involvement, so the Reds own a big block of Eurasia. With USSA the obvious big boy on the block in the hemisphere I figure the Americas will probably fall heavily toward the communist side in this TL as well. The capitalist block has Western Europe and more-or-less its colonial possessions, so big chunks of Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. The map will have a lot of red, and disproportionately in what we would call the Global North, and thanks to more destructive WWII Western Europe will be poorer in this TL.

On the plus side for the capitalist bloc, an intra-communist American-Russian tension looks like a reasonable development to me. This will represent a lucky break I don't think OTL communists really got.

- 1950-90s: Cold War, with the capitalist world gradually being forced to bankrupt itself to match the military spending of the Reds.

- 1990s: Under the strain of having to compete militarily with the richer Red World and of colonial unrest (stoked by the communist naturally) Western European governments collapse in an event analagous to the collapse of the USSR and its satellite communist regimes OTL. Communist "reforms" of Western Europe. Of the capitalist world, all that remains is a few hold-out regimes, such as ... Canada, which's ruling regime stubbornly clings to life even on the doorstep of the beating heart of world communism. The most powerful remaining capitalist nation on Earth is ... India, having broken away from the British Empire and being this world's China analog.

- Ideas on USSA politics:

I don't know exactly how I want to set up this whole "Red America" thing, but I kind of like the idea of an at least somewhat democratic government with two parties, but instead of our economic center-rightish and right parties it's a communist party and a left-leaning socialist party. Compared to our system the parties would break down more neatly along a small government/big government axis, with the moderates being the party of smaller government in general, and the communists being the party of big government in general, including having a more aggressive and interventionist foreign policy (spreading the blessings of communism and democracy to the oppressed people of the world!), with the moderate party being the party of religious people (I figure, what with the whole "opiate of the masses" thing, USSA would be quite a bit less religious than OTL USA after the better part of a century of communism).

I'm rather tickled by the idea of George W Bush existing and coming to power in this TL in a way that roughly parallels his OTL Presidency (complete with War on Terror and Iraq/Afghanistan equivalents) but in this TL he's a relatively far-left communist, and sells the war on rhetoric of bringing democracy and communism to the Middle East. Meanwhile Ron Paul, instead of being a libertarian like in OTL, would be promoting some kind of state-minimalist but collectivist anarchism.

So, anybody have any ideas for fleshing this out some more?

[Somes J]

Some random ideas:

Star Trek is made in this TL. Scotty takes the Chekov role as being a living, talking symbol of how the Cold War will eventually end in some sort of non-Carthiginian peace. The Ferengi are the iconic villains instead of the Klingons. Some fans will later complain that while in TOS the Ferengi appeared to be a believable competent authoritarian-capitalist state (basically, a generic stand-in for the Anglo-French) TNG made them a ridiculous monoculture that cared about nothing but profit.

We totally have to have Ronald Reagan exist and play an analagous role to the one he did OTL, but in this TL he's a staunch communist who breathes new life into the American Communist Party.

What would the space race look like in this TL? With a Russian-American/Chinese split I could see a three-way space race, with the American-Chinese axis and the Russians having a "friendly" competition over who can best show up the capitalists. Maybe, as a symbol of their important working relationship with their biggest Eurasian ally, the Chinese are invited to participate in the American space program. When Neal Armstrong makes his "small step for man" he does it hand in hand with a Chinese astronaut; one of the iconic moments of the space age.

[Magister Militum]

I don't know exactly how I want to set up this whole "Red America" thing, but I kind of like the idea of an at least somewhat democratic government with two parties, but instead of our economic center-rightish and right parties it's a communist party and a left-leaning socialist party. Compared to our system the parties would break down more neatly along a small government/big government axis, with the moderates being the party of smaller government in general, and the communists being the party of big government in general, including having a more aggressive and interventionist foreign policy (spreading the blessings of communism and democracy to the oppressed people of the world!), with the moderate party being the party of religious people (I figure, what with the whole "opiate of the masses" thing, USSA would be quite a bit less religious than OTL USA after the better part of a century of communism).

Something to keep in mind is that in any communist revolution involving the US during the 1900s to 1930s, you're going to see major social anarchist influences in it. You would probably end up with a libertarian socialist state, albeit more moderate in terms of how it views the state. The far left tends to be highly broad, and I would imagine you would also see that in the political makeup of the revolutionaries - you could have communists, syndicalists, anarchists, democratic socialists, and social democrats.

[Somes J]

Another idea that I got from the discussion on the same scenario I made on Spacebattles:

The Korean Canadian War.

In which the USSA stirs up rebellion in Quebec and then uses this as an excuse to secure its north flank.

Ends with three USSA puppet states being carved off Canada: the People's Republic of Quebec and the People's Republic of Canada (Labrador + Newfoundland + Nova Scotia etc.) in the east and the People's Republic of British Columbia in the west (seized in order to secure a land connection between the lower 48 states and Alaska).

Possibly due to interference by the British, a rump "Free Canada" remains but with most of its coastline that isn't more-or-less Arctic amputated.

This is widely credited by historians with beginning Free Canada's eventual descent into what it is in 2012; one of the last remaining capitalist-bloc states and an impoverished shithole that's bankrupted itself with huge military spending, ruled by a government that looks not so much fascist as reminiscent of some kind of weird god-king state.

Basically, it turns into CubaNorthKorea.

Sounds delightfully fucked up and not completely ASBish to me (living on the doorstep of a hostile US is the kind of pressure I could see sending a society in that direction).

[Siege]

Wouldn't it be more plausible for a revolution to succeed if it happened, say, sometime in the Civil War era? Because considering how the US government responded to striking miners and such in the early 20th century (i.e. it bombed and shot them) I'm not convinced a revolution in the 1930s would work out all that well. And even if it did, considering the purging and other post-revolutionary niceties that I imagine would follow a communist take-over of the USA in the '30s, I kinda doubt you'd have much in the way of the formidable infrastructure to run WW2 that the historical USA did. You'd end up with a battle-hardened revolutionary cadre, sure, but all the factories and forges and naval yards were nationalized only a few years ago, and their owners and managers were probably shot, and their work forces purged, and quite possibly they were fought over quite bitterly and so were damaged, and they are now run by communes working on five year plans that didn't take a war into account, and I doubt that's going to be as formidably effective at fighting a war.

[speaker-to-trolls]

I've got to comment on the idea of Western Europe being the capitalist counterpart to the USSA; I don't think this works if World War 2 still happens, and maybe you should eliminate World War 1 as well if you want Britain and France to keep their empires, which I see as the only way they could conceivably stand up to a communist America.

[Somes J]

Wouldn't it be more plausible for a revolution to succeed if it happened, say, sometime in the Civil War era? Because considering how the US government responded to striking miners and such in the early 20th century (i.e. it bombed and shot them) I'm not convinced a revolution in the 1930s would work out all that well. And even if it did, considering the purging and other post-revolutionary niceties that I imagine would follow a communist take-over of the USA in the '30s, I kinda doubt you'd have much in the way of the formidable infrastructure to run WW2 that the historical USA did.

I kind of like the idea of the Russian revolution still happening first, as the reaction of the Soviets to suddenly having a communist USA strikes me as something that might be rather interesting.

Hmm, would it be plausible to have a democratic communist takeover instead (simply the communist party winning a lot of elections and becoming a dominant force in American politics)?

Hmm, I have a very tentative idea that goes something like this:

Great depression is worse than OTL, causing the communist party to become seriously electable. They don't win an overwhelming majority of government (though along with a lot of FDR types they do make up a dominant leftist majority), but there are a lot of them in Congress and maybe the winning President picks a communist VP to appeal to those voters.

A bunch of rich businessmen, conservative politicians, and military lose their shit at this and launch something like the OTL Business Plot, but with more serious money and firepower behind it. Most of the military remains loyal to the legitimate government, but in the chaos and aftermath the President is killed and the "interrim administration" made up of conservative politicians in on or who agree to go along with the coup is either killed, jailed, or thoroughly discredited, leaving the communists in a very strong position, mostly sharing the government with a minority of fairly left-leaning non-communists. The civil war also totally discredits the proponents of economic liberalism (i.e. unregulated free market capitalism) and big business in the eyes of the public, pretty much ending the Republican Party as a serious force in politics, by the same token making open communism more popular than ever, and leading to widespread support for nationalizing the big industries to take that power out of the hands of "unelected oligarchs" so they can never again use their big money as a weapon against American democracy.

Thankfully, the people put in charge of nationalizing the industries are smart enough to be able to recognize that it's sometimes better to leave well enough alone (the focus is more on taking the power of big money away from "unelected fat cats" and insuring better worker treatment and a fairer share of the wealth than on completely transforming the economy at every level), so major American industrial institutions aren't completely gutted except at the highest management levels, though I imagine there would be a fair amount of reorganization.

Sound reasonable?

I've got to comment on the idea of Western Europe being the capitalist counterpart to the USSA; I don't think this works if World War 2 still happens, and maybe you should eliminate World War 1 as well if you want Britain and France to keep their empires, which I see as the only way they could conceivably stand up to a communist America.

I don't know, this field isn't really my strong suit. I'd kind of like the Russian revolution to still happen, which means WW1 is still on ... the point of the TL is to give capitalism the same disadvantages communism had OTL (less resources, more damage from WWII) without doing a simple opposites day of making America communist and Russia capitalist (I remember seeing a couple of AHs that did that already) but maybe I overdid the shafting the capitalist world part? Do you have any specific alternate events in mind?

[Siege]

I think you're projecting a late-20th century Social-Democrat view onto early 20th century communists. What you're describing is simply not what communists were after in that timeframe, or frankly even communist in any reasonable sense of the word.

We're talking about a time where some of the worst excesses of robber baron capitalism in America are if not still perpetrated then at the very least still within living memory. You have people like John Rockefeller living in ivory towers whilst striking miners are massacred by Patton. In a situation like that when an actual communist comes to power he's not going to just do away with the upper levels of management. He's going to be convinced that society has gone completely wrong and needs a serious fixing. They will be firebrands for the miners and the factory workers and the railroad labourers, which is why no president will pick them as a running mate (because they'll be completely unpalatable to the powers that be).

If you set this in a 'Great Depression but worse' scenario then I'd say that it would make more sense that at some point there's elections, communists grab tons of seats, the elite freaks way the fuck out and sics the army on them, and the whole thing blows up in their faces. This ought to be a clusterfuck of magnificent proportions because, well let's face it. You have factors like a South full of vengeful Confederates and sons of Confederates (the Civil War is, what, 50 years ago?), a gazillion disenfranchised African-Americans, an army that's entirely willing to murder the shit out of its own countrymen and who knows what other factors that I'm completely missing.

Bottom line: I'm not convinced you realize just how bad the class divide was at this time, and I don't believe you can pull of a peaceful communist takeover of the USA in the '30s. This should be 1917 on steroids, which means the whole thing might just turn out to be the Civil War all over again.

[Somes J]

Rather than try to defend my own ideas, which are only tentative, I'm going to ask: how would you do it, keeping in mind the following preferences?

1) A world where capitalism gets the same geopolitical disadvantages communism did historically and visa versa, with a communist America a major component of that reversal.

2) Preferably, communism still takes over in Russia before in the US.

Come to think of it, if US industry is screwed up by communist reorganization, maybe that would actually fit with the idea of a more destructive western front war in WWII? It takes some extra years for American industry to recover from the communist purges, as a result WWII drags several years longer, and there's less material assistance to the European allies during the earlier stages of the war?

Edit:

If you set this in a 'Great Depression but worse' scenario then I'd say that it would make more sense that at some point there's elections, communists grab tons of seats, the elite freaks way the fuck out and sics the army on them, and the whole thing blows up in their faces.

Yeah, that sounds like it might be a good premise for how the communist takeover in America might happen. Probably a lot messier than what I was thinking of, as you said, but maybe we can work something out with WWII being lengthened as a result of weaker American industry due to general destruction and communist purges?

[Heretic]

Russian Mafia can act like the CIA, maybe going undercover, selling some illegal and unregulated goods and loaning privately (!) at high rates in the U.S. like they did in OTL Soviet Union.

EDIT: DIsregard CIA part, I didn't see the line where you say Russia is still communist..I think.

[Shroom Man 777]

Men walkin' 'long the railroad tracks
Goin' someplace there's no goin' back
Highway patrol choppers comin' up over the ridge

Hot soup on a campfire under the bridge
Shelter line stretchin' 'round the corner
Welcome to the new world order
Families sleepin' in their cars in the Southwest
No home no job no peace no rest

The highway is alive tonight
But nobody's kiddin' nobody about where it goes
I'm sittin' down here in the campfire light
Searchin' for the ghost of Tom Joad

He pulls a prayer book out of his sleeping bag
Preacher lights up a butt and takes a drag
Waitin' for when the last shall be first and the first shall be last
In a cardboard box 'neath the underpass
Got a one-way ticket to the promised land
You got a hole in your belly and gun in your hand
Sleeping on a pillow of solid rock
Bathin' in the city aqueduct

The highway is alive tonight
Where it's headed everybody knows
I'm sittin' down here in the campfire light
Waitin' on the ghost of Tom Joad

Now Tom said "Mom, wherever there's a cop beatin' a guy
Wherever a hungry newborn baby cries
Where there's a fight 'gainst the blood and hatred in the air
Look for me Mom I'll be there
Wherever there's somebody fightin' for a place to stand
Or decent job or a helpin' hand
Wherever somebody's strugglin' to be free
Look in their eyes Mom you'll see me."

Well the highway is alive tonight
But nobody's kiddin' nobody about where it goes
I'm sittin' down here in the campfire light
With the ghost of old Tom Joad

[PeZook]

Sorry for the necro, but the thought of how "American Communism" might look like is so fascinating that I couldn't help but muse about it some more.

Now, I seriously doubt a Communist USA would look anything like Soviet Russia - communism takes a disctinctly local flavor wherever it appears because it is, at inception, a thoroughly democratic ideology. You might even call it anarchistic, since the basic idea is that the means of production are controlled by the working class. This is why the 1917 revolution in Russia was chock-full of workers establishing temporary revolutionary comittees, why it is so opposed to the artistocracy etc.

Which, when you think about it, is really very very...American.

Americans hate communism right now because of how it looked in the time of the Red Scare - after going through Stalinism and cementing itself as a truly authoritarian way to run a state, with only a thin layer of democratic paint. But Americans are also mistrustful of government, and their popular culture has as one of the most beloved villain archetypes, the "corrupt industrialist", the "evil banker" who steals land from farmers. Their national mythos is chock-full of stories where The People organized themselves spontaneously to defeat opression.

So an American Communist party running a revolution will almost certainly appeal to that mythos, and you'll see a "worker's revolution" that called images from the Revolutionary War, but framing it as a class war. Britain is PERFECT as a "capitalist enemy of the masses" because, well, it's Britain. Come on.

Funnily enough, American communism might look more like a nation run by Tea Party conservatives than international socialists - except, of course, since it will be born out of a worker's revolution, they won't be as hostile to the idea of state control (because it WILL naturally evolve towards totalitarianism) - but I can bet the propaganda will frame the entire thing as a triumph of Liberty against Opression, and COPIOUSLY call upon the ideals of the Founding Fathers (edited, of course).

[Shroom Man 777]

True that, you can't simply just do a name change swap from USSR to USA and viola. Best example as to how local conditions would affect these things is, like... how communism happened in China.

[PeZook]

Can you imagine propaganda quoting Lincoln in the context of class struggle?

Man, Lincoln. A hero perfect for communist America, what with his humble beginnings as a farmer and with a reputation for liberating the slaves.

I'd also imagine communist american propaganda will spout a lot of stuff about how slavery was defeated by the struggle of free peasants and workers in the great factories of the emancipated North!

Much like Polish propaganda post 1945 couldn't shut up about how the pre-war government lost to the Germans.

[Shroom Man 777]

Then they'd stick all those plantation workers into FREEDOM FARMS, i.e. Americanized kolkhozes.

When they go full retard and make us behold their true form, it sometimes ends up looking a lot like the previous pre-existing regime.

As they say, meet the new boss same as the old boss.